Isn’t ‘crazy’ doing the same thing over and over expecting different results… like, finally the results you want. Trading is doing the same thing over and over – and expecting different results than what you want – because you accept uncertainty. ............... Kernel of truth here. Knowing the difference can be part of moving into success. What do you think?
Not for those that have an edge. People that have an edge do the same thing over and over - accepting the uncertainty of any given trade - but knowing that over the longer term, money is being made. For me personally, it's sort of a "zen" feeling of comfort.
Nearly all of what traders perceive as "their edge", isn't edge at all. Conventional wisdom... "To succeed, you gotta have an edge"... Well, there is no edge*... at least not a legal one. Then again, perhaps it boils down to definition of "edge"... sort of like Clinton's "that depends upon what the definition of "is", is." * My guess is that HFT'ers DO have an edge... basically "front-running" trades... which is blatantly illegal... but because it's "only for pennies", the revenooers look the other way.
LOL. Is it not true that many traders keep trading without a real plan or back tested edge -- and expect they will eventually succeed when it has failed day after day, year after year? I confess I did that for some time. On the other side of the issue, many teach that once you get your plan you then "hire yourself to do a job" where you are not concerned with the results so much... you just do the protocols. You change your expectations; you may even try to get rid of them altogether. So in affect you learn to do the same thing over and over and train yourself not to expect perfect results every time. Any individual trade can do anything. You don't expect each one to win. You accept uncertainty and risk. It's the sameness/routine that interests me... In the one case it is crazy, in the other it is part of the success. It may be part of the difference between gambling and having a skill. This may work differently for traders then other occupations.
I am there baby, am way craziest son of sea biscuit I think any job after years gets to be about the same if you actually enjoy being the best you can be in your job, you simple get good, you expect to be profitable in every trade, of course I expect money each trade, but I also expect to out do myself in percentages each week. I use to lie to myself in my beginnings, I think most men do and much less so with women, men tend to be dreamers instead of taking much more difficult path of doing it right and test like a madman, you do 30 sample size when market was hard trending into believing you an expert now until your account in toilet, and it should be cause that is a clear cut sign you dumber than I was when I started, well as dumb as I was. And still after all the back testing and developed an incredible system, you still have to trade it, and let me tell you, it seems forever to get that dragoon off my back to stop me from thinking I am better than the 26,000 sample size of last system I manual trade, I "just know it is going to go up" and Thank God I don't. I never heard of many phrases before I came to this forum "edge" "content" "edge" your trading method better be good enough to make a ton of MONEY cause you have to give up so much of you to get it, then you have to be able to not change trading method or you be opening another trading account with Visa and continue to say "I am so close". Then at some point you do realize that it was much easier than you originally thought it been which at this point you are crazy and no one understands you, they don't care but want you to take them shopping..... I have learned that when you have finally figured it out, you laugh all the time.
...I guess you can say some traders are indeed infact 'crazy'.-- like the one's who have been doing this grind for 5+ years, and are not profitable yet. You can also make the counter argument, that genius can sometimes be delayed. Who knows. people, are people. a mixed, unique breed. Some people make slow, steady progress in life -- while others are stagnant, then all of a sudden blossom from out of nowhere in spades :eek:
There are absolutely edges. You may not call it an edge. There are techniques and strategies and structures, especially in the options arena - that allow you to win more than you lose over and over again. I'm not getting into percentages and ratios as I don't want to go off topic here, but there's absolutely nothing illegal about any of it. Naked and explicit pricing in the market is highly efficient. Arbitrage and scalping vol and other "mispricing capturing" became the folly of machines (over man) years ago. Some here still do a little of it, but it's tougher as the technology improves. On the other side, individuals can create option spreads and structures - with risk mgmt rules in place - that give them the ability to consistently make money. If that makes me crazy, then so be it.
Thank you for your post. I started this thread after contemplating a post by Redneck: ...and then thinking about doing a routine in an environment where doing the same thing doesn't give you the same results every time. Not something most people are comfortable with. BUT then you mention genius. There are several quotes about it that seem pertinent to trading. I recently read the following which eerily overlaps with Rednecks statement of the requirements of trading: [These quotes were collected by Robert Genn, an artist who made the following statement] While we can’t say what genius is, exactly, there’s a bit to be learned by what bright folks say about it. There’s more than one side to genius, of course, but it seems to me there’s remarkable agreement: “Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience.” (George-Louis De Buffon) “Genius is one percent inspiration, and ninety-nine percent perspiration.” (Thomas Edison) “Genius is not a possession of the limited few, but exists in some degree in everyone. Where there is natural growth, a full and free play of faculties, genius will manifest itself.” (Robert Henri) “The secret of genius is to carry the spirit of the child into old age, which means never losing your enthusiasm.” (Aldous Huxley) “Genius is the infinite capacity for taking pains.” (Jane Hopkins) “Genius, the power which dazzles human eyes, is oft but perseverance in disguise.” (Henry W. Austin) “It takes a lot of time to be a genius. You have to sit around so much doing nothing, really doing nothing.” (Gertrude Stein) Does trading successfully require a touch of genius? I guess that is another thread.
Well, the same can be said about any other job out there, don't you think? isn't it crazy going to work every day and expecting something else to happen? Isn't it crazy to eat/drink/shit and expect something different to happen? Trading it the way to make money, the way to get reach by doing something a person can enjoy, too. And you should treat accordingly. What's crazy about that?