I was also playing around with some projections in terms of global events and what those show is that if USA will attack Iran, it will happen on July 3 or 4th and not before that. Again, I am not saying the attack will happen but if it does, early July is my bet.
Looks like I was wrong... Or that I over estimated the effect an American bombing would have on the markets.
Its the latter. I looked into the next 4 weeks EurUsd projection and it showed a significant drop starting around July 3rd which would coincide with Trumps 2 week timeline. There is also a market similarity based on Metonic cycles which shows a drop starting on July 4th. All those things made me think the bombing will happen around that date because I expected a much larger effect on the markets than what we are seeing now so this weeks projection is holding well this far
I have a buy open since this morning @1.1486 which is currently at BE after being down about 30 pips. Looking to switch to shorts tomorrow afternoon/evening when my projection is showing a reversal.
There is one more prediction for a crash from July 3rd. Post #28466 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/gotta-love-zero-risk-in-the-sp500.85694/page-2847
I was expecting the Iran-Israel situation to be the catalyst for a large market movement but it seems like its might be something else (if it actually happens). In any case it is just a fun exercise for me so dont take my prediction too seriously. I am focused on predicting short term swings on EurUsd. Another thing to consider is that my calculations only show the price direction and the time of reversal, it doesnt tell me how much the market will move. It is possible that my projection for July 3 is only showing a pullback instead of a crash and the move will be minor.
Closed longs for +120 pips and went short. Will keep the sell trade until Thursday evening/Friday night.