Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by FXtrader8911, Jun 18, 2019.

  1. Not quite, JP is an extreme example, companys work more on honour and tradition that on western principles, most would not qualify to list on western exchanges (China also), anyone that trades the NIK needs to have a grasp of the Japanese culture, as one must know any markets they intend to trade in. JP banks are to this day still holding on their books bad loans since the bubble burst, then there's instances such as Minolta where the CEO got thrown-out by the shareholders for disclosing a $3b hole in the accounts, keeping the honour of the founder was more important for the ones that lost the money than airing corrupt practices, recently there is the Renault/Nissan matter... many examples that tell you JP has a different way of doing things and if you don't understand the cultural differences then you should not be in their market, never-the-less, even the NIK broke its all time highs in 2017, so the statement applies to it, as well as to the ASX.
    #11     Jun 19, 2019
    Quocquang and murray t turtle like this.
  2. cvds16


    As far a I know the Nikkei was well trading over 40.000 at the end of the eighties decade we are currently at 21.000 so far from reaching the high ....
    #12     Jun 19, 2019
    murray t turtle likes this.
  3. I stand corrected to date, reached 37k, highest since then was 25k, it will eventually get there

    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
    #13     Jun 19, 2019
  4. The Fed didn’t cut, this was widely expected, however, Powell indicated that a rate cut was coming in 2019 allowing traders to hold on to hope of policy loosening. The bots swung the DOW by 150pts, going up and down on each sentence, after the speech the humans took over and the DOW ended less than 40pts away from the previous close. If you are a market scalper, you did good with the more than 11 opportunities to take 50pts or so on the DOW over the hour the bots were active... a good 550pts there for the taking. Most of what Powell said is already priced in so the Fed notes were not a market mover. Powell did however take the opportunity to fly in the face of Trump by saying that there is no legal way he can be removed from the job and intends to complete his full 4 year term.

    Powell is considered unqualified to hold the Fed chair, his appointment was initiated by Trump presumably under a pre-agreement that he would do as Trump directed, from day 1 Powell played-out Trump by trying to show his independence, but in doing so he caused the Oct & Dec market crash and planted the seeds for a recession by overtightening and with his "auto-pilot" rate increases and BS reduction announcements, requiting both Bernanke & Yellin to stand by his side to publically force a retraction of the plan (all that missing from the scene were the handcuffs and the tomato throwing traders in the audience). The guy is dangerous and hasn't a clue on how to analyze data nor what data is relavent.

    I remain in the view that the risk is for a correction rather than any substantial new highs, September is the probable start of a major correction, possably close to the Dec lows, however, there should be a recovery by year end. I've got money were my mouth is, currently net short in the US and adding more shorts at rallies. I am net long Europe as a hedge and also because I think Draghi is a much better central banker with foresight to pre-empt any downturn (shame he's leaving in Oct). Powell will act only after the horse has bolted.
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
    #14     Jun 19, 2019
    Quocquang likes this.
  5. Alexpung


    The return of the Nikkei 225 is actually quite good if you consider its performance since its reception, it demonstrated how much it hurts if you entered at the top of a bubble.
    #15     Jun 20, 2019
  6. Despite much media hype on reaching new all time highs overnight in the US, one needs to put things in prospective... only the S&P500 reached new highs, just about everything else hasn't, most notable is the Russell2000 at over 10% from highs.

    NIK225 -12.14%
    FTSE100 -5.97%
    DAX30 -9.02%
    MDAX50 -7.05%
    CAC40 -2.01%
    HSI43 -14.76%
    MIB40 -14.19%
    IBEX35 -17.94%
    DOW -0.69%
    US RUSSEL2000 -10.38%
    US NDAQ100 -1.55%
    EU50/STOXX50 -6.34%

    The VIX is at its average level indicating that at least half the players are not totally bulish and are taking some level of insurance against a sell-off.
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
    #16     Jun 20, 2019
  7. Overnight


    The Dow hit an intraday new high also. That is significant. All eyes are on G20 now. Button up your pantaloons, it could get crazy from here!
    #17     Jun 21, 2019
  8. Was 100pts below on Thu but did almost get there on Fri, now back to the 26,600 handle. G20? bunch of politicians elboving themselves to get the best position for the photoshoot. All eyes will be on the Trump Xi meeting although little outcome is expected. Masrkets are overbought, high on nothing but fumes, a small left wing wind blowing the fumes away is all that's needed to spoil the party. I added to US shorts on Fri, now I wait.
    #18     Jun 21, 2019
  9. Overnight


    Yes, that is the swan song we keep hearing since Jan 2018. Yet the market keeps rebounding and touching new highs. That we are constantly hitting this top is significant also.

    G20 is going to be the key.
    #19     Jun 21, 2019
  10. Well, the song wasn't in vain with 2 major corrections in 2018, the Dec one was 20% despite reporting predicting growth, the last reporting season no longer predicts growth... no acceleration in growth for a few, no growth for many and lower earnings for some, yet markets are at the level they were when the PE was 17+ and growing, if the song was out of place in 2018, it isn't now. The significance is that sentiment is not in line with fundamentals. No doubt sentiment can drive markets for a long time... this is how bubbles are formed, however eventually markets always gravitate towards fundamentals which are lower to where they were in 2018. The G20 or the Fed even might surprise and come up with a stimulus reigniting accelerated growth but after the Euphoria driven sentiment on the news, proof is sought, in-between a correction is likely
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2019
    #20     Jun 21, 2019