Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by FXtrader8911, Jun 18, 2019.

  1. Overnight


    No, that was the China tariff tweet. May 5th, a Sunday, around 2PM ET? That caused me to bail longs on Sunday night. Then Mexico came a bit after which drove it down further. Then end of June 3rd happened, and NQurious made his long call.

    I remember some bits.
    #31     Jun 27, 2019
  2. The proposed tariffs on Mexico came out of left field, it was a black swan, it brough the tariff matter front & centre and made tariffs a market moving event. Issues with China were not a market mover until Mexico came in the picture... business was adjusting and working on plans to restructure the supply chains, the overall effect of China on business & markets was minimal, but throwing Mexico into the mix (a location business was proposing as an lternative to China) and doing it for reasons other than trade started the "what next", "who's next" questions that paralyzed business putting an end to supply relocation plans

    No one imagined such action, Mexico is not China, its industrial base is mostly American, Japanese or European owned, the capital investment is not Mexican, Trump was, therefore, proposing to tax American manufactures and American capital investment, Mexico would lose jobs and that would magnify the illegal cross border attempts which Trump said was the reason for the tariff... totally irrational, making business fear the "what next" and shelve the re-sourcing plans, the announcement was also counterproductive to the intended effect of the China tariffs.

    An idiotic announcement, little surprise that markets took it badly... at first markets thought it was a loose-canon tweet but when it was confirmed by the administration we saw a vertical drop on all US markets, US markets closed the month at -6.6%. Not implementing the Mexico rariffs did not restore confidence, Trump showed how reckless he can be towards the plight of business that business might well do nothing until he's gone.
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
    #32     Jun 27, 2019
  3. Overnight


    And the China Tweet did not come out of left field on May 5th? Dude, you really need to STFU, because...

    Oh, I know what it is...You trade sim accounts, and do not trade REAL MONEY in the markets. So when the market moves 600 points against you because of a China tweet, which a follow-up Mexico tweet exacerbates, you simply waffle and make up bullshit in retrospect.

    If you were REALLY there in the beginning of May, you would have known EXACTLY what happened.

    But no, you read it on your Twitter feed or WSJ days later.
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2019
    #33     Jun 27, 2019
  4. Read post #24 bozo, you need to learn how to trade

    Getting cough-out in a 3k pt drop in Jan taught you nothing? Seems you got caught with your pants down 3 more times after that... May was just a small plip, yet you still whinge... lern to trade man.
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2019
    #34     Jun 28, 2019
  5. Haha, left field? no, it was a known and expected event.... you really need to STFU, because you know nothing, even confuse a 600pt volatility swing with a flash crash.
    #35     Jun 28, 2019
  6. The G20 is over, the only event that shows it took place is the family photo. All eyes were on the Trump Xi talks, these apparently went as expected... Xi agreed to keep talking and Trump agreed not to add to the tariffs as long as there is talk, no surprise there, not much reason for today's opening rally but we got one none the less. I do not think the rally has legs, if anything, a status quo will give Powell reason to stand pat which will disappoint markets that ere expecting a cut. In all, my view is that the down risk remains greater than a continuing rally. For now I remain net Short on the US markets. The HSI is closed today so no indication there on how Asia is taking the Xi/Trump talks.

    On N. Korea, one must praise Trump, Protocol & stuffy Diplomacy are not on his mind... crossing the DMZ on the spur of the moment did a lot to show the US is not the arrogant bully they often get accused to be. Trump did not give anything away, no sanction relief or any other concession, but still the tensions that built up after Vietnam got diffused.
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2019
    #36     Jun 30, 2019
  7. Overnight


    So you are saying that Trump's tweet on May 5th about ratcheting up the trade war with China with the tariffs, due to China "reneging" on a huge part of their deal, was EXPECTED AND KNOWN beforehand?

    I need your crystal ball, man.
    #37     Jun 30, 2019
  8. Indeed, that's exactly what I said, so no left field, no black swan, something a trader should have bought insurance against, the timing might surprise but the event shouldn't. I suppose next you'll say the tariffs on the remaining $300b is also a black swan when implemented? There's no excuse for not managing risk when a black cloud is visibly overhanging, you can hope it won't rain but leaving home without an umbrella is what fools do, then whine for getting wet. Badmouthing the umbrella carrier out of jealousy because you got wet and they didn't just makes laughing fodder, especially so when you announce ridiculous self-fulfilling excuses such as "he didn't get wet because he never went out"
    #38     Jun 30, 2019
  9. Overnight Monday saw the market reaction to the Trump/Xi meeting celebrating the truce with the S&P500 reaching a new high. In a nutshell, Xi gave nothing: just agreed to attend talks and "listen", While Trump agreed to put on hold additional tariffs and relax some restrictions on Huawei. Trump declared a win but I give the point to Xi instead, anyway, although nothing much at all can be seen as progress, markets considered a truce as a good thing and rallied.

    Personally I rather concentrate on facts rather than fumes and form a view on the fact that 77% of the 113 companies that have issued earnings per share guidance ahead of the 15th July start of the reporting season have warned that their numbers will be worse than what Wall Street analysts are estimating. This together with todays' bad manufacturing number still tell me that the risk is higher for a sell-off than for a continuing rally.

    However, my view is in the minority for now as the majority of Wall Street pros in a CNBC survey say their overall market view remains optimistic, and more than 65% say they believe equities are correctly valued. It is to be noted that the pro's view is all sentiment IMO based on 2 factors... 1. The Fed will lower sending investors out of bonds and into equities. 2. The US is the only game in town and will attract foreign money into its markets.

    There you go guys, one dial says up, the other says down... My view leans towards the words from the horse's mouth (industry itself) saying earning will disappoint so have to conclude that even the Wall St. pros can be wrong temporarily. I'm remaining net short for now and keeping the limit buy orders starting at -8% from here and progressively buying to Dec lows. i.e. I agree with the Pros and expect 2019 to end at a high but expect fundamentals to override sentiment and cause a correction before year end (probably by Sep)

    This link is indicative to what industry is saying:
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2019
    #39     Jul 1, 2019
  10. I'll sell you mine, I don't trade on voodoo so don't need it, make me an offer (I'll throw-in the voodoo dolls too, one resembles Powell, another your idol Jim)
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2019
    #40     Jul 1, 2019