How did that work out for you in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan ? So the plan is to disrupt the global Oil business ratcheting up Oil prices everywhere ? Not sure how that squares with Trump's election promise to slash gas prices in the US but a man can dream I guess.
Another TDS based whataboutism I just wrote about in another post. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trump-is-bombing-iran.385238/page-6#post-6147378
Well, if we're talking what really matters here... pretty sure I said "Let's hold off for now." Edit:
Long Oil was the play imo it wasn't hard to read that Trump was going to act rashly at some point in the two weeks.
Did you buy calls on the XLE at $82? If you did, if you played what you call "the obvious" (with 20/20 hindsight), then you'd have scored a 400%+ winner in less than two weeks. I hope you did Nine.
Targeting Iran's oil facilities will put Saudi Arabia's oil fields at risk. Oil will easily shoot up to $100 a barrel or even higher if oil supplies drop to very low levels. Saudi Arabian oil fields wide open and Iran will likely mine and shutdown the Straight of Hormuz raising shipping costs thru the roof and cutting off oil supplies to Europe as well. Iran has already shown it has hypersonic ballistic missiles that cannot be stopped. Even a F-35 fighter jet can only go as fast as mach 1.9 speed trying to catch and shoot down a hypersonic ballistic missile traveling at mach 6.0 or even faster than that? You cannot stop that. Russia has also shown the same thing as Patriots and other surface to air missiles fail to stop its hypersonic ballistic missiles in Ukraine. The US warmongers have been exaggerating the US weapons capabilities and you all drank the kool aid. Unfortunately, you have to fight your war in the real world. This is the situation now, not the pipe dream of 10 years from now! That is if it happens at all.
I don't take crazy risk high plays. I bought numerous Oil stocks made decent money on them already ( holds and day trades ) with the observation that most were not pricing in even $70 Oil yet. I posted about the names several times there is no hindsight analysis I follow this space more then most if not all traders on here. I also noted that weekly US Oil inventories went negative twice despite numerous forecasts of expected growth which tells me the "experts" are not keeping up. One of the advantages of lower risk plays is you put in much larger positions. I modify my exposure to the sector overall to control risk but Thurs/Fri was a really, really nice setup imo. Oil may open $3-5 higher tonight who knows where it opens tomorrow morning but the stocks should be bullish as the theoretical trading range for Oil short term gets more bullish. I remain realistic though there is no sure thing in commodities a lot of manipulation can occur in the futures market ( unless the fundamentals overwhelm the day traders ). The stocks themselves can be traded on daily ranges unless it's a super bullish day then best to let them run up 8-15% throughout the day. If Oil goes up a ton then maybe more.