Using Losing Trades as an Indicator

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Redneck, Aug 22, 2023.

  1. Redneck

    Redneck

    what I was trying to say - one can use ATR to define the volatility / breathing space needed for current conditions

    RN
     
    #21     Aug 23, 2023
    beginner66 likes this.
  2. Dollardogs

    Dollardogs

    Small ball all the way!
     
    #22     Aug 23, 2023
  3. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Obviously.
     
    #23     Aug 23, 2023
  4. Handle123

    Handle123

    Very little learned by losing trades, BUT ONLY IF the losing trade was part of the system traded.

    I study and break down what makes for winning trades. How far in drawdown of winning trades trade was negative. Have to breakdown winning trades
     
    #24     Aug 24, 2023
    Redneck likes this.
  5. Ricky Roma

    Ricky Roma

    Redneck... By ATR 1 you basically mean the previous day's range? Which is s very important piece of info for someone to have in their toolbox
     
    #25     Aug 24, 2023
  6. PPC

    PPC


    If I understand you correctly, then you want do categorize your trades into winning vs losing. I think the challenge with the above categorization is that trading is not just about skill, but rather a combination of skill plus luck, and I think the luck factor needs to be removed if you want to learn from your trades.

    As you know, you can take a perfect setup and execute perfectly, yet it takes only one trader with more money than you to change the outcome of that trade (the luck factor). You can also take a FOMO trade, screw up everything you can, yet the trade ends up a winner (the luck factor).

    Therefore, I’d suggest that you also classify trades into ‘mistake free trades’ (following your rules) vs ‘trades with mistakes’ (not following your rules).

    Then you can start tracking how many ‘Risk-multiples’ are your mistakes costing you, and also tracking (in %) how you’re efficient in in terms of mistake-free trading.

    Let’s say your technical edge makes you 10 Risk-Multiples per month, but if you make some mistakes during the month, then instead of 10R, you might end up with only 6R. If you'll focus on improving trading efficiency (which has nothing to do with reading charts) and focusing on trading mistake-free (following your rules), then the increase in returns can be phenomenal.


    If you want to improve your TA edge, then I think you should manually scroll through historical charts and capture each of your set-ups and paste it into your set-ups library and annotate each chart with before/after comments (including market conditions). That way you’ll be far more objective than doing it with live trading.

    Nevertheless, I want to make it clear that journaling your live trade with all kinds of metrics is very beneficial, regardless of whatever approach you're using, it comes down to individual preferences. :)
     
    #26     Aug 24, 2023
  7. Redneck

    Redneck


    if I were to categorize them it go something like this;


    Against trend - I was fighting what I was seeing

    Against trend - I was confused with direction of actual move

    With trend - I got shaken out due to nerves

    With trend - nominal volatility took me out

    Traded a turning point

    Traded a pullback

    Ol lady yelling at me / dog pissed on my leg

    Got up late and wasn't prepared / Didn't eat breakfast



    Or whatever is applicable to my situation - then track number of occurrences over time - in excel or similar

    RN


     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2023
    #27     Aug 24, 2023
  8. Redneck

    Redneck

    And / or individual bars - depends on the TF one it trading


    Trading is not..., nor ever been - a one size fits all

    RN
     
    #28     Aug 24, 2023
  9. Georpe

    Georpe

    I categorize each trading day by type and profitability (Green/Red). For each log I tag everything I see in price action (opening, setups, behavior throughout the day, etc...anything I want to track) with screengrabs of the chart including trades taken & economic reports released.

    Both winning and losing trades are helpful to track; you can use your database to work at identifying what to look for when a trade worked or didn't work, and build your probabilities from there. People that are 'lucky' are the ones who put in the work.
     
    #29     Aug 24, 2023
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. %%
    SAME here.
    Some execeptions include\
    when SCHW did no commissions. [ But bid \ask is $till an expence, so oVertrading is costly.......................................................................................]
     
    #30     Aug 24, 2023