Victor Sperandeo's 123 Trend Change

We can argue about correct trendlines and which guru teaches them the best all day. That's why hardly anyone on here has real trading success. Unless someone has come up with a systematic way of testing them, it's all just anecdotal experiences and cherry-picked results.

 

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MAY do it;
or reread his Trader Vic Black book cover......................................................

 

Yep, pretty sure that his intent was to use the HL/LH represented by the #2 pivot as your initial stop. (Although I'm not sure that he ever specified using exactly "1 tick" below/above, but assume you were just using that as an example.)

A break of the #2 pivot is the first clear sign that your presumption of a trend change may have been wrong... so it makes sense to get out there, and then reassess, wait for a new potential setup.

 

Are you numbering your pivots like this?
Where's your entry?

 

No, I'm referencing how Sperandeo identifies his "123s." Based on his numbering, "1" is the break in the initial trend, "2" is the first HL/LH pivot formed on a test of the preceding low/high, and "3" is the break of the level of the first minor high/low.

So wrt your diagram:
His "1" would be at/near your "1";
His "2" would be your "3" (the HL pivot); and,
His "3" (/entry) where if breaks above the level of your "2."

I believe his stop would go just below your "3."

My apologies if using the term "#2 pivot" was confusing. It wasn't intended to mean "the second pivot."

 

On this chart then the stop zone would go at number ... 2?

 

I believe so, yes. But I'm unclear as to why that image is labeled as "123 + 2b," because my understanding was that a "2B" is a special case which applies only when the retest at "2" (in that same diagram) actually breaks above "1." In the "2B setup, an earlier, more aggressive entry (e.g., a basic "sell setup") just off the failed break is allowed (rather than entering only on a break below "3"), and the stop is set above that second high at "2."

 

That's an image from a search return on youtube, not directly from the Sperandeo source.
Good to hear your take on this. Anything else you feel like passing along is of interest.

 

This is Sper's 2B reversal

 

Looks like repackaged "M" and "W" patterns.
Which are merely repackaged Double top and double bottom.

A rose by any other name...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/double-top-and-bottom.asp