Last month i was early and got this wrong. I do believe the markets have already priced this in. There may be a pop up Wednesday, but i may sell into it.
traders are not interested in whether CPI will be weak or strong. We will just focus on the chart and react to what the chart says.
I think it will be weak also. Remember, housing data, specifically Owner Equivalent Rent (OER) gets reported much later and that will be keeping CPI elevated over the next 6-9 months. I lived through the last time we had this kind of inflation in the 70's and I don't think the Fed really appreciates how hard this will be to contain. Anyone looking for rate cuts in Q1 23 is delusional.
Weaker CPI is already fully priced in by markets. Look at the short rates and how they traded the past couple days. The weaker print is almost entirely caused by lower gasoline prices and a bit softer avg housing prices. But that does not mean that high cpi regime is over anytime soon. I will also look for a move higher in equities and risk on currencies in order to later position against such initial move, should it ever materialize.
Real wages going lower and lower and Biden's IRS auditing the entire middle class. Only a bot would vote for this.
"Weaker CPI is already fully priced in by markets. Look at the short rates and how they traded the past couple days." I have been watching the 52 week t-bill rate. Steadily up last few days. Today's range - Day Range 3.108 - 3.299 Almost at 52 week high 52 Week Range -0.376 - 3.308 On Aug 1st it was 2.85%. Since then it has steadily risen.
That was because the Fed pivot never existed that was wrongly interpreted by the market as I laid out in detail in another thread. Tbills traded flattish post fed pivot adjustment. Check again.