That's right. It's about future expectations. Look at how FB reacted this quarter as growth expectations were reset despite handily beating earnings estimates.
Based on the posts above, I've compiled this list of variables that have the potential to cause a major move following a quarterly earnings announcement. Thanks to @Jones75, @atrp2biz, @killshottrader, @Bekim. I've done my best to rank them in terms of their potential to cause a major (greater than 10%) price movement. I realize that every case is different, but as a high-level guide, have I missed any, or should the order be switched on any of these? Forward management guidance Actual vs expected EPS Revenue Industry-specific metrics new 52 week high, or even all time high new recommendations from analysts gap size + further price action Thank you for your help and (pun intended) guidance Sincerely, Keith :^)
That is a pretty decent list. Nice job. One thing to look at is how the expected value can change over different horizons after a large gap on earnings. There are so many quant type systems with substantial capital using "earnings momentum" and similar factors now, it can be a fertile area to look for profits - all to often, all the "elephants" try to exit through the same door at once.
Thank you for your helpful comments! Yes, we are on the same page! In open defiance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), I now believe that a massive spike following an earnings report is like a hurricane, or tornado passing through in the case of a downspike; for an upspike: finding a rich vein of gold or winning the lottery (in the case of an upspike). It's a momentous change! In these circumstances, the new value of the company is not found immediately. It can take hours, a few days, or even more time for the market to figure out and settle to the correct value of an equity after such a massive shock. I do worry a bit about the EMH. I hope that I'm not a fool for my unbelief of Fama's work. Of one thing I am certain: the Market will let me know!