I think we clearly established that you know nothing about economics in previous threads but are suffering from a severe Dunning Kruger effect when it comes to the subject....how's that non-farm payroll report going for you BTW?
Hopefully local governments will take action where the Federal government may be lacking. Corporate debt was super high even before this. So large businesses may default on loans. So what? I predict a brief recession from COVID, then continued expansion of at least 3 years. The only troubling thing is that there is no more room to drop rates if "something else" happens.
Let's see if a jobs report comes out in the next few months showing a massive increase in unemployment... Then tell me it has no effect.
Go read the thread where you argued that the stock market was going to respond to the last NFP report despite it being week old data and backward looking. You know, the one where you were completely and utterly wrong, and yet somehow you insisted that I was the one who knew nothing about macro? And yeah, no shit the next NFP is going to show significant unemployment. The market's been going down since your last comments exactly because it was anticipating that drop and the broader damage to the economy that represents, in case you missed it. Like I said, pretty significant Dunning Kruger on display with this one.
You mean where you misquote me and I don't feel like responding cause you're annoying? Although I do remember saying it would be interesting to see if even a positively surprising jobs report would stop the downward trend caused by the virus. This virus at the time hadn't reached pandemic proportions. Never did I claim the report reflected data since the virus got bigger. Never did I make any claim as to what the market would do. I said it would be interesting to see. You're still annoying, btw. Talking to you is worse than being on lockdown.
China saw thousands of cases per day for just over 3 weeks. They had no warning. Italy will reach the 3 week mark on about April 1st since things have gotten very bad there. I predict things will get better in Italy shortly after that point. In fact, Italy has already seen a drop the past 2 days. Unfortunately, NYC is just beginning. It will definitely be a rough 3-4 weeks there. Spain is lagging behind Italy. I think Germany and France are at the worst they will get also. This will all look very different in one month.
Seriously dude, go back and read all your posts in this thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/its-over-historical-bull-run-has-come-to-an-end.340894/ We'll all wait while you do. Literally everything you said proved to be wrong...everything! Let's just pull out a "best of" though since I know you won't go back and read the thread since self-reflection is something you're clearly incapable of. And your all time best: And let's not forget you started that thread with insisting a supply chain shock couldn't cause a recession, because (you claimed) it had never happened before and apparently nothing can happen that hasn't happened before. I know you said elsewhere that you don't trade (which begs the question as to why you're pontificating on a forum called EliteTrader!), but if you did you should definitely just do the opposite of everything you believe to be true and you'd absolutely kill it!
You just proved me right with your quotes... "I'd be interested to see". My exact words lol. And this "supply chain disruption"... How do you know how quick the recovery will be once the virus cases start to lessen? Now is this temporary virus situation causes lots of loan defaults, then that could be a different story. I was right about TMF yesterday. Should have held it longer. I predicted SPXL today (read it in my post) and it would be up 20% already in 1 hour but I decided not to bet against the trend. I already have a more concrete way of making money. I'm here because it can be interesting to talk about and try sometimes (not as a primary source of income). I'm definitely not here to talk to you. Especially when I'm right, yet you still argue endlessly.