I believe any instrument is risky if one is uneducated to trade. Too often too much time placed into getting in and very little on getting out or managing the trade to the right of signal bar. I know in my case it was that way when I was first staring to trade. Unless you have stop and reverse system, you going to have to learn to see the signs the trade not working out or market is possible going to reverse. Read up on "Rounding bottoms/tops", the distances between pivots are narrowing will give this rounding shape and most indicators will show divergence. Most of my profitable trades happen pretty quick, like in 3 minutes and twenty seconds, so I have a time rule that when price is filled I have to lock in one tick or new target is plus one tick, let someone else pay my fees cause these really add up by end of your trading. I don't do all that much Forex trading as I prefer currencies futures cause of the extra couple of bucks, HOWEVER, if the spread is too wide in the futures compared to Forex, will do with forex. It's nice to have options. Many will PM asking me which market is easiest for a new trader, I think E-mini Nasdaq is most forgiving. Too often in ES, it is difficult to get that one tick one wants to pay off the fees when in trade too long and having to be happy with entry price and exit, or simple not enough volume at Plus one tick profit, whereas Nasdaq always seems to behave. But if you not done enough study and simulated trading, no market is easy. Don't need many signals, Triple Top/Bottom AFTER extended trend and retrace to a moving average then breakout, two signals, one trend and one counter-trend, using time rule so don't overstay your welcome. Your back testing will say how much to use for protective stops and targets. Learning price patterns will say one of two things, when not to take signals and when to either tighten stops or get out. All done by back testing and studying price action. I use ten signals for entries and all same money management rules for all instruments I day trade. But do your homework of back testing to make it work or not work for you.
I think we all know the dollar needs to go down, it's just when and from what level? DX and cl are very similar. they can go to the moon, but when they cross 100 you start to see demand destruction and normal business starts to break down
I am surprised that more traders didn't spot this. Notice that after the huge 150 pip spike it literally retraced the entire move to the tick. This was an easy trade to enter. GBP/USD was making doji bars with large tails signaling the turnaround. I shorted at the top and took a piece but got out way too early. This is as close as the market comes to giving out free money. You don't need indicators. Just look at what the market is doing.
It wasn't just one 150 tick spike though. Seems like it topped out around 50 mins after the initial move. Traders who tried to fade got punked out atleast twice (assuming typical stops). My recommendation is to look at the employment cost index and what it represents. It's a measurement of inflation, via wages, and is used by the Fed as data point for decisions. Such a surprisingly low figure from consensus is enough to probably make traders believe the Fed is even more unlikely to raise rates.
I didn't look at my charts that early, so missed the first pullback. By the time I saw the charts it was ready to turn. I entered about 9:20 am. On a move like that I always scale in, and didn't get stopped out. You could have even put a portion of your capital on the first pullback and made money.
trading numbers can be a real trip. I don't do it because I am not fast enough. I am usually looking for bigger moves than a number can give you, but it's hard to sit tight and do nothing when it is obvious the mkt is over reacting. I may change what I do if it moves in my favor, but if it moves against me, even on an over reaction I will take my loss.
As for why it dropped later - it was overextended right into a prior resistance level for the 1st time:
Well I was pretty specific, I said the dollar is likely to drop early next week. So I am saying it is likely to drop from now for the next 2/3 days. GL.
All the $100 level is - is a BRN like any other whole number. No freakin' demand destruction whatever that is supposed to mean. Look at crude on way down it destructs $100.
the world as we know it stops functioning when either crude or the dollar goes too high (or too low.) What is too high? Well, it aint just price, it is also time. At this time, 100 on the dx starts to cause problems.