" Here's what would happen to markets and the economy if China attacked Taiwan Rick Newman ·Senior Columnist Mon, August 8, 2022, 11:49 PM Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year has roiled global energy markets and caused food shortages in some parts of the world. The disruptions could intensify during the winter, with soaring energy costs causing a recession in Europe and weakening the economies of the United States and many other nations. A broader and more devastating conflict remains possible. A war involving China would be orders of magnitude worse. [...] [...] "
Don't say "what if", just do it already if China is so inclined. Seriously everybody is sick and tired of the "what if"'s.
What happened to Tibet? It is now part of China. Taiwan will be part of China. Next might be the South China Sea / the 9 dash lines. After that .... China used to be fragmented and ruled by many many kings.
If China wanted to take Taiwan today, they could. The only question is the cost. I doubt the US or any other country would step in to defend Taiwan. But I would expect (hopefully) to see China get the Russia treatment and see some serious long overdue decoupling start happening. Not only with the US but also Europe. Already, ASML will not sell their most advanced lithography machines (EUV) to Chinese companies. TSMC has them, but if China tries to take Taiwan to get them, I would expect that China will have a very hard time sourcing materials and machines to make semiconductors. They should be cut off from the rest of the world except for maybe North Korea (which is really a China proxy) and Russia at that point.
It is hilarious to see people saying "China will attack Taiwan". You guys have to understand Chinese politics to see that the Taiwanese see themselves as the real Chinese and that Taipei is the capital of China. The one and only. Obviously the Chinese at Beijing think the same. Once you understand that and how they have managed to call themselves "the capital at the south and the one at the north" you will understand what is going on. Because that is what Beijing means, the bell at the north, the northern capital. The USA has nothing to do there, they are creating conflicts like everywhere else, just their usual business. So once you get rid of the western crap that is used to manipulate you, you will see that if there is any attack it is likely to be the Taiwanese the ones who will try to take over the whole country. Just look on Wikipedia for Taiwan, for fuck sake. They call themselves "The Republic of China"
If you think decoupling is something bad for China and good for the west, you get it wrong. If that happens, no one benifits. The entire world hurts. You will see US market plunge , just as when Trump announced trade war with China, US market plunged.
Taiwan could make a deal with India: Taiwan would sell TSMC to India in exchange for 5-10 nuclear bombs. That would buy Taiwan some security. then China would think twice about attacking Taiwan. besides, what's the point of gaining a waste land. or else China may play the constrictor game with Taiwan...
The idea a country sell nuclear bombs to another country is childish. If people who control nuclear weapons act like this, the world would have been destroyed by nuclear long time ago.