Nobody knows when this market will top. The only important thing is to be on the right side when it happens. My experience is that big trends always go (much) further then most people expect.
when is this market going to top? ...I was going to say when the ice or snow is no longer there, and you're going down now on normal mountain terrain, But Trading is always slightly more complicated than that, ;
The Market never "tops". Individual stocks may. Market corrects itself once in awhile. It is not in the interest of the banks, governments, nationals, multi-nationals. They have to keep churning the engine up. IMO.
Only if rates head up to 3% on 10 year.. otherwise no true reason, since it's been massaged beyond 1929 valuations. As rates head up to 3%, the risk reward shifts. Otherwise just buy any absolute deviation from highs based on your account size and stop loss from entry.
A friend of mine bought into this market in 2008 and watched his portfolio sink right into 2009...held on a bit and rode it back up selling for break even some years later....didn't make another trade since....he just told me he is going long the s&p 500 index, I said you do what you got to do....I said buy all the s&p 500 you can buy....hopefully he can grab another 250%+ in the next 8 years just like the last 250% gain from the bottom of 2009 into 2017!!!! Nothing but free money.....zero risk all reward all the time.....
Those are some incredible returns....thanks for digging up that data....I find it funny that after such a powerful rally that even if the markets were to pull back say 17% or so that people would be crying like little bitches and cnbc would go into a frenzy and question why the market is selling off .....I mean talk about squeezing out returns...how much more can you squeeze out of this market...there does come a time when valuations become extremely stretched....