You can also observe the pattern of 2 hard selling days to close the month, then the "drift" returns. Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan...same thing.
Yes, same thing. I've heard from a few people (either opening accounts) or just going "all in" within the past few weeks. Updates throughout the week about how much they are up. It certainly feels like the offloading is happening, but at the same time we've seen that any meaningful attempt at a correction is aborted and some more "happy talk" is put to work to stop even minor corrections at this point. The two biggest decliners last year happened in the middle of the night. By the next day, you'd never even know a damn thing happened if you didn't have 24 hr data. The morning after Brexit, the ES bid what 60 handles higher in the first hour? before putting in that Monday low.
this market rally is not that unusual, it happened in the past if you check yearly time frame, we are having the same angle, repeating pattern and all top calling in a bull market doesn't make sense, imo
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Nikkei just has a longer correction cycle. Seems to me a top should mean it will never come back to the same high again, like the price of beanie babies, Enron stocks, tulips....?
I see your point, I just don't think that it's completely practical. Maybe a "trade-able top", but one that after many years may eventually be breached (inflation, currency debasement, etc, etc).