Thanks for your reply, last night, JPY became not so weak as the past 16 days, USD/JPY followed USDOLLAR index to decline, but USD/JPY doesn't decline as more as USDOLLAR's declining, according to second most traded currency pair's before, USD/JPY should decline next week to absorb traders as a second most traded currency pair, shouldn't it?
Now that you did say it’s a volatile pair to trade with, ever wondered when you perform margin trading with this pair, how easy it would become to lose some serious money?
Hey I did think about margin trading and the leverage aspect of it all but then I believe it’s the timing of the trade that makes the difference to the intraday profits. Now when we speak of it, anywhere between 1200 and 1500 GMT is the perfect time when both London and New York are at full pace.
I suppose it’s the better recovery of every other currency save USD and even GBP. Let’s see how it fares in the next few weeks.
I went long the EURUSD not long after the London open this morning (8 Feb). My target was 11 pips. The price just meandered sideways for hours. I began to wonder whether it would not stay that way until Mrs. Lagarde's speech. I didn't want to hold through that. She might try to talk down the Euro (even though it doesn't need her help). Fearing it might not quite make it to my profit target, I lowered it from 11 pips down to 5. That worked, but then the price continued to climb significant beyond my original target. So I could have made twice as many pips this morning, but I don't regret my conservative decision. After all, no one has a crystal ball, and the Euro has been weak recently. Now I'm watching for a reversal signal. Right now, I feel more confident trading this pair in the opposite direction, and only went long this morning because that was the short term direction on the chart, but it pulled back a bit and went sideways for what seemed like forever. From reports by analysts (use google news), it appears the long awaited USD short squeeze in on the verge of developing (not today specifically, but soon--long positions are finally dropping). I hope to trade a bit more aggressively once the squeeze appears to be underway. It's good to have the wind at your back, although I do pretty well trading ranges. I have found trading with the trend to be surprisingly tricky for intraday positions. It's easy to get whipsawed.
That's the theory, but, in my experience, I do just as well during the London session even before NYC opens.
Yes, a big plus for intraday. The wider spreads are okay for longer holding periods, but for intraday trades for a few pips, those tight spreads let me enter at the market. If I have to enter with a limit order, sometimes the price gets away from me without touching the limit. Then if I give up on the limit order and chase it, the move is mostly over and I get whipsawed after getting in too close to the end. That's why I want tight spreads for intraday.
There are several pairs that I am willing to trade intraday, but I only focus on one of them at a time. I find, at least for me, it is too easy to overlook a signal or to make an error in judgement when I divide my attention between multiple pairs. It is different if I take a longer position, but for longer trades I enter with a much smaller bet size. When a large part of my margin account is on the line, I want it in one position and to watch it like a hawk. Okay, I see I'm getting a signal, but Lagarde's speech is only minutes away so it might just be pre-event volatility, and the London banks will be closing soon so I'll probably call it a day.