Which way? Metals

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by themickey, Dec 10, 2020.

  1. themickey


    No breakeven analysis, but fundamentals yes.
    My main method of fundamentals is ween out from my universe anything suspect.
    So I look predominantly for what I can get rid of rather than look for what I want to trade.
    What's left over from the winnowing process becomes tradeable via algo signals, but then even after a signal received I will weigh up pros and cons of if it has high probability, look at the big picture, market/sector overall. My main goal is trade hard but trade safe.
    Very high discretionary + algo signals, been trading ~30 years.
    #31     Jan 5, 2021
  2. Nine_Ender


    I believe today offered up some decent entry points on gold/silver miners that exhibited tremendous strength Monday. Better to have been invested before this week but with Gold/Silver threatening higher levels still decent opportunity imo. I'm surprised that Caliber ( CXB ), New Gold ( NGD ), Endeavour Silver ( EDR ) took a breather today. However, my observation is often we get these breathers just before the best moves ( eg Silvercorp all year is was a pain in the ass to time ).
    #32     Jan 5, 2021
  3. Nine_Ender


    Friday's action demands a rethink. Gold miners held up fine, silver miners didn't. However, Monday's have been very bullish in general for metals, and in theory Democrats winning, the stimulus, and the bad news stories should be good for Gold. Friday's drop in Gold seems like manipulation on the surface to be confirmed moving forward. Anytime something unexpected happens, one has to be prepared to pivot because markets and especially commodities can be extremely irrational short term.

    With Energy still hot and looking very bullish into Monday, I'm mostly holding energy plays now underweight in Gold ( just CXB ) but still have a fairly large position in 3 Silver miners. The drop was too quick Friday to trade out of that, but I'll reduce that Monday. If energy reverses and metals establish support I may dabble in some Gold miners again based on recent price ranges and momentum prior to Friday.
    #33     Jan 9, 2021
  4. treeman


    Strict price action has an extremely favorable entry @1901.70.
    The silver setup is even more bullish is it can clear @26.53. If it clears that, my target is well over 30, maybe as much as 35.

    HG's setup for the moon, I just can't find an entry that's not chasing it. I fear it's off to the races already.

    Silver is currently looking like it's the most tangible play. I'm considering hedging all my assets in silver if it clears my indicated level. Possibly for years.
    #34     Jan 9, 2021
  5. Nine_Ender


    Short term we will learn a lot Monday. We'll either see an instant recovery trade or the bull in metals is over for now. If it's the latter the buying opportunity for miners will reappear shortly before miners release earnings ( or if they drop a lot soon ). I think Gold needs to recover to $1880 area to signify Friday was a temporary correction. Silver maybe $26. The peculiar thing is you'd think both would be up if any news of the $2000 stimulus comes through. That's what fueled the move to $1950.
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2021
    #35     Jan 10, 2021
  6. treeman


    Given today's candle, the entry point got tighter on silver.

    I'm considering a buy stop order at 2560 (2498 stop). If I do this, then I'm in and I plan on laddering up at 2653. If we get there. Positional hold - months minimum likely more, rolling as we do. Regardless of the past few days, the silver setup is still bullish.

    But Copper has my eye. I'm super bullish. I'm waiting for the entry.
    #36     Jan 11, 2021
  7. treeman


    And I’m the proud owner of silver. It’s my currency hedge currently. I aparrently live in silver-land. Fuck the dollar.
    #37     Jan 12, 2021
  8. themickey


    Freeport-McMoRan stock price target raised to $33 from $20 at Deutsche Bank

    Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. engages in the mining of copper, gold, and molybdenum. It operates through the following segments: North America Copper Mines; South America Mining; Indonesia Mining; Molybdenum Mines; Rod and Refining; Atlantic Copper Smelting and Refining; and Corporate, Other, and Eliminations. The North America Copper Mines segment operates open-pit copper mines in Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita and Miami in Arizona; and Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico. The South America Mining segment includes Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The Indonesia Mining segment handles the operations of Grasberg minerals district that produces copper concentrate that contains significant quantities of gold and silver. The Molybdenum Mines segment includes the Henderson underground mine and Climax open-pit mine, both in Colorado. The Rod and Refining segment consists of copper conversion facilities located in North America, and includes a refinery, rod mills, and a specialty copper products facility. The Atlantic Copper Smelting and Refining segment smelts and refines copper concentrate and markets refined copper and precious metals in slimes. The Corporate, Other, and Eliminations segment consists of other mining and eliminations, oil and gas operations, and other corporate and elimination items. The company was founded by James R. Moffett on November 10, 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, AZ.
    #38     Jan 13, 2021
  9. themickey


    JPMorgan raises overweight allocation to commodities

    JPMorgan Strategists Boost Exposure to Commodities, Cut Bonds Joanna Ossinger Jan 15 2021, 7:43 AM Jan 15 2021, 10:31 AM (Bloomberg) --

    Investors should boost their commodity positions, go further underweight bonds and maintain a pro-risk exposure to equities, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. A team including Marko Kolanovic, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and John Normand raised the co

    Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/jpmorgan-strategists-boost-exposure-to-commodities-cut-bonds
    Copyright © BloombergQuint
    #39     Jan 15, 2021
  10. Relentless


    Short Gold / Silver.

    Long $DXY.

    Eat your heart out JPM.

    #40     Jan 15, 2021