Who knows better: A Half Dozen Polls.... or Wall Street?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by vanzandt, Jun 1, 2019.

  1. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Just brainstorming out loud here so don't hammer me too bad, I might be all wet (not the first time), but I've been thinking about this. I like to simplify things that teams of data scientists and other experts tend to miss because they are too smart. Ya don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows right? At least some of us don't.
    Anyway...

    The markets are very efficient where the rubber meets the road. Most of the time.
    Many of the T/A traders here seem to think the charts are a crystal ball into the future. Now don't throw me into that mix as an unquestioning disciple... but just sayin'... there probably is a degree of truth in that, all things being equal.

    Soooo.... I as I said before in other threads... this "Medicare for All" catch-phrase is going to get traction with the Dems as its a sure thing for securing lefty votes. Whoever wins the nomination will certainly make it, or some version of it, a cornerstone of their strategy.

    That's not going to be good for the medical insurers.
    With that in mind... I want to post this chart of IHF.... I did some digging, and it seems to have the most exposure to the sector. It should be a dynamic chart, ie it will update in this post real-time.
    ($164.57 as of 6/1/19)

    We need a baseline, we can't go by the recent trend... but if Wall Street is truly visionary and there exists a secret network of the true whales, folks that manage billions for folks and countries that have billions... then perhaps as 2020 draws near... our little healthcare ETF with all its "major player" holdings (UNH, Aetna, Cigna, HCA, etc) will portend a Dem win or loss better than Quinnipiac, CNN, Fox, ever will.

    Who knows... but markets are efficient.
    Watch the trend as Nov 2020 draws closer.
    Up for Trump, down for the clown car.


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    upload_2019-6-1_19-11-53.png
     
  3. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    you just need to track biotech during the 2016 campaign for an idea
     
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    Yeah, sux for my health care mutual fund. The shit is getting hammered.