AFX News Limited Former Fed chief Greenspan says US may enter recession this year 02.26.07, 9:45 AM ET HONG KONG (AFX) - Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned today that the American economy might slip into recession by year's end. He said the US economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end. 'When you get this far away from a recession invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign,' Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. 'For example in the US, profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle.' 'While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 ... with some slowdown,' he said. Greenspan said that while it would be 'very precarious' to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year. The US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.5 pct rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from a 2 pct rate in the third quarter. A survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics showed that experts predict economic growth of 2.7 pct this year, the slowest rate since a 1.6 pct rise in 2002. Greenspan also warned that the US budget deficit, which for 2006 fell to 247.7 bln usd, the lowest level in four years, remains a concern. 'The American budget deficit is clearly a very significant concern for all of us that are trying to evaluate both the American economy's immediate future and that of the rest of the world,' he said via satellite at the VeryGC Global Business Insights 2007 Conference. Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover effects from the slowdown in the US housing market. 'We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing,' he said.
From the WSJ: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/ Scott Patterson reports on the Dow industrials quick 3 p.m. drop: The sudden, sharp decline by the Dow Jones Industrial Average shortly before 3 p.m. Eastern time today was triggered by a tabulation delay by Dow Jones data systems, which calculates the average. There was a temporary lag in calculation of the 30 large-stock average due to a surge in order flows as the market continued to tumble in afternoon trading, much like a clogged pipe. Just before 3 p.m., Dow Jones Indexes switched over to a backup system to calculate the average, which nearly instantly registered the huge move. The glitch wasnât the cause of the decline, but it did cause the drop to register far more quickly than it otherwise would have. Other indexes fell at the same time, but more gradually. Some traders noticed a discrepancy between futures contracts tied to the Dow industrials and the index, which directly tracks the stocks. Usually, the futures contracts closely track the overall average. âThere was a huge disconnect between the Dow futures and the Dow averageâ of about 200 points, said Brian Williamson, an equity trader at Boston Company Asset Management.