%%FED, bonds were never a predictor LOL; I thought summer rally would be weaker also. BUT TREND is a friend.As far as gold ,...….being an indicator, HUH??……………………………………………………………………………………………………………...Plenty buy stocks every month thru pension plan ROTH, Retirement funds...……[Edit note ,summer rally is still real young- so its not a prediction, not long TSLA...…..]
Offshore repo collaterals... Since baoshang something snapped in money markets, pboc only covered 70 %, 30 % haircuts happened when the narrative was pboc will cover loses at 100 % regardless. A lot of shit chinese corporate bonds are used as collateral in local repo in china and also Eurodollar money markets... AA bonds are being rejected in china, AAA is 2 to 1 on loan value and only sovereign bonds fully accepted, but the weird thing the chinese 10 year isn't being bid a lot... The best collateral in china isn't being super bid, which is very confusing and indicates serious lack of cash by banks in china. European banks got fucked lending trillions of USD to EM's and china through Eurodollar markets, but collateral ain't worth much. That is why the faith in them are gone, German and Spanish banks are dead men walking, bail out zombies. Gold and sovereign bonds are collateral of last resort if you will, a sign that money dealers no longer want corporate bonds as collateral unless of high quality... As more debt is created, the lack of safe collateral shrinks as well, as you can see with almost 13 Trillion of negative yielding assets... Those are being used as collateral, and aren't enticing. From my research and readings, when Gold and UST get bid like crazy, it's the end of credit cycle and everyone is going for safe collateral to pledge in money markets... Money dealers hoarding government bonds ? Only makes sense in a chaotic environment. When Subprime MBS were no longer accepted as collateral, Lehman happened... Exactly what just started to happen, but in Offshore repo now, not US Interbank Then add 250 Trillion + of derivatives between the Big 9 of US/EU ( estimated 600 T worldwide ), if one fails they all blow up... DB is failing and about to blow, rest go with them... Fed stress test that just passed is a joke for CNBC and mainstream media, since 09 every one hides their bullshit in Caymen entities with 0 over site and no reporting requirements... JPM has 59 Trillion in notional derivatives, net exposure of 348 Billion versus 201 Billion of risk free capital. That's from US Banking assets/liabilities, offshore stuff ? Who knows, it's in the shadows... Same as DB and all other sneaky banks Fed comment about the Capital One and JPM Failed test : In the supervisory severely adverse scenario, Capital One Financial Corporation (Capital One) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan) were projected to have at least one minimum post-stress capital ratio lower than minimum required regulatory capital ratios based on its original planned capital actions. Capital One fell below the minimum required common equity tier 1 ratio, tier 1 capital ratio, and total capital ratio on a post-stress basis. JPMorgan fell below the minimum required common equity tier 1 ratio, tier 1 leverage ratio, and the supplementary leverage ratio on a post-stress basis…However, both Capital One and JPMorgan were able to maintain their post-stress regulatory capital ratios above minimum requirements in the severely adverse scenario after submitting adjusted capital actions
%% Actually amazing how often those big banks get sued+ lose; attorney ads proving that= in IBD + WSJ all the time+ for many years.NOT likely a loser like DB drags down all of them for long. JPM + DB are not near big enough to goof up a superstrong uptrend this year, but anything could happen on a 5 minute candlechart/ noise NOT a prediction, not long TSLA; the most probable projection is like 2009, SPY + QQQ had huge up year, but down 10% a month+down 10% another month.[20% down, but year end up 25% SPY+ 45% UP QQQ/+ ,2009 year end .] Actually for 6 months, 2019; SPY is doing better than 2009. Pre-election years[ 4 year cycle/+] tend to be super-strong, as Hirsch Almanac noted ,,
Lots of buybacks out there. I wonder if they will they ever start buying back their own merchandise? Then they can report sales that exceed expectations. Maybe I can sell my iPhone back to AAPL for a profit.
Honestly the more we try to comprehend all these, the more opportunities we are going to miss, the less money we are going to earn, and the more reckless mistakes we are going to make. So simply trade index, gold, bond based on what the charts say and without comprehending the inter correlationship.
What It Will Take for 1 Billionaire to Start Unloading Stocks By Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch Updated June 21, 2019 9:37 am ET / Original June 21, 2019 5:05 am ET Order Reprints Print Article Photograph by Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg Text size John Templeton once famously said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Leon Cooperman, billionaire chairman and CEO of Omega Advisors, says we could be “knocking on the door of euphoria” if the rally continues. That big move, he told CNBC on Thursday, would amount to a rally in theS&P 500 above 3,100. The benchmark index saw a record close on Thursday at 2954.18 after gaining a tick under 1% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed almost 1% higher. “I’d be reducing my exposure” to equities if that level is reached, Cooperman said. He has about 75% of his fund, which is now closed to outside investors, in stocks, with the rest invested in fixed income. Cooperman, like many others, questioned the wisdom in cutting rates when the market’s already banging out new highs. He described the Fed’s monetary policy, which is signaling potential rate cuts later this year, as “inappropriate,” and said the fed funds overnight lending rate should be at 3% not 2%.