Will Russia invade Ukraine

Discussion in 'Economics' started by VicBee, Feb 14, 2022.

Will Russia invade Ukraine?

  1. Yes

    21 vote(s)
    36.8%
  2. No

    36 vote(s)
    63.2%
  1. cesfx

    cesfx

    Thread's poll got it wrong.
     
    #201     Feb 22, 2022
    VicBee likes this.
  2. Millionaire

    Millionaire

    -21% in three days is nothing compared to what just happened:

    Just looking at the RTS index. Has recovered somewhat now but was just down 50% in one day :wtf:
    Last close for the index was like 1200 but was 610 a few hours ago, now back to almost 900.

    "Russian stocks plunged 50 per cent in Thursday's trade as trading resumed on Moscow Stock Exchange.
    The dollar denominated RTS index sank 49.93 per cent to a low of 614.19 level for the day. MOEX, another Russian index, wiped 45.21 per cent off its value to trade at 1,690.13.
    Russia's biggest stock by market capitalisation, Gazprom, slumped 54 per cent to 129.50 rubles. Rosneft dived 59 per cent to 178.65 rubles. Novatek was down 48 per cent at 702.80 rubles. Sberbank tanked 57 per cent to 89.59 rubles. Lukoil tumbled 47 per cent to 3,173.50 rubles."

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...s-on-moscow-exchange/articleshow/89794446.cms
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
    #202     Feb 24, 2022
  3. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Really whacked out my $SPX/MOEX spread ratio chart :)
    ! SPX MCX.png
     
    #203     Feb 24, 2022
  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    More delusional than your trading calls.
     
    #204     Feb 26, 2022
    d08 and themickey like this.
  5. VicBee

    VicBee

    Yes, it shows that despite all having similar media to evalute the question, 2/3 of respondents were wrong, me included.
    Trading is affected (significantly or not) by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, yet most of us failed to see it coming. Who correctly predicted the direction of the market after the news? I'd bet at least 2/3 got it wrong.
     
    #205     Feb 26, 2022
  6. piezoe

    piezoe

    Actually 2/3rds got it right. Putin is the one who got it wrong! Now he is fucked. This is the beginning of the end for him.
     
    #206     Feb 26, 2022
    Cuddles, TimtheEnchanter and VicBee like this.
  7. VicBee

    VicBee

    That's why I was doubtful he would invade. The US set up the trap and he bit. He is in a major quagmire now. The longer it takes for Russia to control Ukraine the more untenable his position is and the Russian military will remove him before suffering the humiliation of showing their limited capabilities.
     
    #207     Feb 27, 2022
    piezoe likes this.
  8. piezoe

    piezoe

    I hope you're right. Even if Putin somehow manages to set up a puppet government over all of Ukraine, he can not succeed in the long run without both support of the Russian people and cooperation of Ukrainian citizens. It seems he is in the process of losing the former, and he'll never gain the latter. In the meantime the sanctions on Russia will cripple the Russian economy. The more harm he inflicts on Ukraine the more the resolve of his adversaries will strengthen. He is doomed; hoisted with his own petard. (See Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 4)

    There’s letters sealed; and my two schoolfellows,
    Whom I will trust as I will adders fanged,
    They bear the mandate; they must sweep my way
    And marshal me to knavery. Let it work,
    For ’tis the sport to have the enginer
    Hoist with his own petard; and ’t shall go hard
    But I will delve one yard below their mines
    And blow them at the moon. O, ’tis most sweet
    When in one line two crafts directly meet. — Prince Hamlet
     
    #208     Feb 27, 2022
  9. This poll should teach you something, when you see tanks moving into a country, it's the same as Price moving up. However, only 33% of you can trade.
     
    #209     Feb 27, 2022
  10. virtusa

    virtusa