I wanted to write this earlier, got sidetracked, and the damn thing jumped already... but I like FDX for earnings. Lots of reasons. I'll cover that later It's up $3 today already and I apologize for not speaking up earlier. I feel confident its going up. FDX $244 ----> +$3
Fedex is a no brainer down here. Money is fleeing the high flying tech stocks that earn zero dollars and trade not at multiples of earnings, but multiples of sales. For the last 18 months the mantra centered on their future growth, while I watch their ceo's and others at the top of the stack file Form-4 after Form-4 locking in 100's of millions of dollars on the backs of retail investors that bought the hype. The mantra... "it's about their future growth". Well, whatever on that. The rule of 40 needs to be the rule of 100 imo before any insiders start cashing out. Most of these high visibility stocks are now 50% plus off their highs. Ask yourself, who's holding the bag? Not the whales. But back to Fedex. Jet fuel is coming down, e-commerce continues its exponential growth, their ground division which so many "experts" have lambasted... will be fine. This is a solid solid company that trades at a forward PE of 12 with a 1.25% dividend. In our current market environment, the search for value is on. I think Fedex has been overlooked. I give it a strong buy anywhere around $244+/- a bit.. Fedex is NOT going away. I think its time has come as the whale money seeks quality and value.
Either UPS is overpriced or FDX deserves a little multiple increase. Metric comparisons: UPS P/E 28 FDX P/E 12 UPS P/S 1.8 FDX P/S .76 UPS Price/cashflow 19.5 FDX Price/cashflow 7.5 UPS quarterly revenue growth 9.2% FDX quarterly revenue growth 13.9% UPS pretax margin 2.2% FDX pretax margin 7.9% UPS debt/equity 173 FDX debt/equity 84 UPS price/book 15 FDX price/book 3.2 I think its a steal; if UPS is fairly valued that is.
I don't know much about fundamentals but I failed to see how any of this would reflect on their next ER. Why not wait after their earnings report to be safe?
Because it's undervalued IF they produce a good report which I'm quite confident they will. As to buying after earnings to be safe, yes one could do that as I believe it's a long term hold, as is Thor (above), but as I said I think they'll have a great report so why miss a $20 or 10% move? But again, the safer play would be to wait. And on Thor, it's interest sensitive I realize that and it could take a decent hit tomorrow on Powell's remarks, but it trades at a very very low PE and they smoked their earnings, they also have over $1B in back-logged orders, so I suspect any sell-off will be bought. If Powell does remain dovish, THO will jump nicely tomorrow. Plus I like Airstreams.