Part of me wants to buy a bunch of oil futures and just hold them for as long as it takes for the prices to rise.
And what about the other part of you that saw the 650-tick range of it today, at $10 per tick and like $5K margin per contract? (That's the angel on your other shoulder saying NO).
Appears like luck had a disproportionate role in your final outcome Nevertheless, do it 2,000 times and if you’re still alive then the hypothesis that it’s mainly luck will look less credible Until then, good luck
How can you assume it's just luck if I based it on 20 years of daily data? I won the trade twice today btw, and am 11.25 points away from hopefully winning it a third. Plus I'm also doing the same trade simultaneously on a paper trading account. So far 3 wins and 1 loss, and 10.25 points away from hopefully another win. So total 5-1. Which is enough for it to be profitable. Hopefully soon 7-1. But I do know it's a small sample size aside from the back testing. But yes I do know it needs to stand the test of time. Perhaps I can look at the data to see if there's any similarities in the days it lost.
I never once assumed it was “just” luck. Twice you’ve responded to me and both times you have committed a comprehension mistake. Some call it a straw man. I say luck had disproportionate role You interpreted it as if I said “it was all luck” Those are two diff things.
sample size is too small. Do it 100x's and if you've got 51% winning trades, you'll be onto something....though it looks like your hedge would unlikely allow 49% losers.