Waouh you made all that long answer for me : it seems you don't have much more to do do you wait also some calculation to finish or what or are you a lonely guy if I believe your psy analysis you must have read in these fashionable psy mag My calculation is finished soon I'm going to sleep so I will rather answer tomorrow. P.S.: you're right I'm an eternal teenager since many dozens of years haha We will see if you can beat my model ... you are on my list : good sleep P.S.2: btw what psychology mag do you read ? You know you musn't believe that all generalities they can serve can apply in every case ... or you believe also what they say about Stock Market do you .
Really? At what point in America's history did it end "very badly"? Or Britain's? Switzerland's? Canada's? Japan has public debt of over $5 trillion dollars, about 50% more than their GDP. Did you see consumer prices skyrocketing in a hyperinflationary spiral over there in the last decade? The collapse of the currency? Fiat money inflates at the rate of increase of the money supply relative to the increase in the supply of economic goods - basic economic supply & demand. In a normal economy this will result in moderate year on year inflation. That's it. For the currency to collapse would require huge continual expansion of the money supply. And while that can definitely happen, in an advanced 1st world economy there are a whole host of interest groups whose power would be destroyed under that eventuality (the Fed staff would be fired, the government would be voted out, banks would be wiped out), so we can be pretty confident it won't happen. As for debt, even a debt load of 100% of GDP only costs 4.4% a year to service under current interest rates. The US debt load is no way near that. With tax receipts at about a third of GDP, the current interest payment burden is 4.4% of the current debt load as a % of GDP. At a guess that is about 1-1.5% of GDP, and thus about 3-5% of total tax receipts. Even if I am out by a factor of two, that is still a small proportion of government revenues. The idea that this cannot be paid for is complete nonsense. In any case, the US has had hyperinflation on two occasions - the Revolutionary war, and the Civil War. In both cases the country and economy came back, and a few years after the crisis (which is not unusual in times of war) America went on to much greater prosperity than before. According to your theory, America should have suffered mass poverty and financial ruin at least twice in the 19th century - instead it was the fastest growing economy in the world, with a price level in 1899 that was LOWER than over 50 years previously. How do your theories stand up in the face of this evidence? All you have in favour of your belief is a single data point - very sound statistical inference there! And you are even wrong about that - the Roman Empire was one of the longest lasting, most dominant, and most advanced civilisations in history, with higher living standards than many countries in the world today. Even after Nero and others (emperors by the way, so hardly a good comparison with democratic constitutional government) had debased the coinage, Justinian and others ran a very prosperous civilisation in the Eastern Roman Empire based in Constantinople, which lasted until the early middle ages until it was destroyed by *war* not monetary ruin (in fact its coins were prized for their purity). Rome was also a mercantile empire, not a market-based economy. Finally, if you are so sure of America's impending economic destruction, what about countries like France and Germany? Lower GDP, more ageing populations, no immigration, massively higher taxes and regulatory burdens, and lo and behold exactly the same supposed "problems" of high government debt, budget deficits, and fiat currency. You point to your conspiracy theories about secret communists in America, when France has actual *self-declared* communists and socialists in its representative arm of government, and where communist party candidates *win elections* (when they are not beaten by racist National Front candidates like le Pen, that is). Any ludicrous criticism you can level at the US on economic grounds is automatically levelled many times more at other far more socialist and economically unsound countries like France. I guess when your beloved collapse comes, you'll be standing in a queue waiting for your green card like the rest of them. As for your so-called trading competition - traders don't, as a rule, challenge other traders to competitions. They are too busy trading and making money to waste time with some silly event where half the competitors are playing with paper trades or pathetically small stakes. The very fact that you go on about this just shows that you aren't a real trader - just a clueless and irritating wannabe who clogs up a board made for people who are actually looking for advice to help their *real* trading. You are not only putting off the serious posters of ET with knowledge to share, you are also dissuading those who want and even need discussion on serious topics. All that harm done, and for what? To seek attention so you can feed the little ego residing in that closed mind of yours? Pspr, Speakingout and no doubt others have tried to suggest that you cut out this nonsense and actually try posting about topics relevant to trading. But you continue with your incessant off-topic posts, conspiracy theories, relentless illogic, and political mudslinging while swimming in an intellectual cesspit all of your own. IMO it's about time you either learned to grow up and act as a responsible member of this trading board. Quite why people ask for Scientist and Gordon Gekko to get banned while you continue wittering with impunity is beyond me.
Yikes Cutten...that was a verbal ass whipping worthy of "Good Will Hunting"...solid comments...well founded as usual..
It's called "anchoring". When people believe that things that have never happened won't ever happen. The deficit is very real and I think most traders are showing that quite aggressively by buying up gold and the euro. I doubt this is a fluke, wouldn't you say Cutten? I have had my issues with HarryTrader and frankly I have come to the conclusion that this guy is either ridiculously dumb, or amazingly genius. The thing is, his english is so bad, I would tend to believe the former. Empires do come to their knees, they have, they will. The tipping point may not be within your lifetime (although I wouldn't bank it all on it) but it may happen during the life of your underlings. - Have you seen consumer debt in function of employment? Scary. - Have you seen consumer debt in function of savings? Scary. When the baby boom starts retiring, the net receipt for taxes is going to fall dramatically, medicare will put increasing pressure on the deficit as well and correct me if i'm wrong, but when taxes start creeping up to service that debt, will you be around to pay them? I won't. Capital flight is what will happen. Also, who do you think is the main contributor to keeping prices/interest rates down? Japan and China, who keep buying and buying dollars and US securities to keep their edge on exports. I wouldn't want this gentle equilibrium to go awry or it will go bad, FAST. So I don't know if that green card looks so good after all, but the thing is, if the US economy crumble, we'll all be going down in the hole.
1929 tells you nothing . And it was all over the world. This crisis has been the setup for revolutionarists like Hitler because it is the misery of the poors that they take as argument to make such revolution. Germany was the military superpower of that time, before Germany a few hundred years before it was Great Britain, before Great Britain it was France, ... and now it may be the turn of US and China to be the next Super power of the future decades I don't know when perhaps it will be in 2020 but that's the trend demographically, economically, politically: all businessmen now bent in front of China. If one believes Elliott who predicted the current buble for which 1929 is only the first episod, this one should terminate around 2012 and it will be THE BIG one according to his theory (it seems that Prechter prefers to ignore it since he predicts the Big one since 15 years at least ). As for my model it gives up to 2016 but contrary to Elliott I'm not sure that I can extend to such scale since I never postulate like the Elliotists that the market is obligatory fractal. But if it is then that's what my model gives. As for the rest of your blah blah blah I suggest that you stop to spam with personal attack or do it in chichat. I have exposed facts from history with EXERPTS from ORIGINAL text of people who did the history and you are incapable of answering to these arguments to the pinpoint and prefer vague generalities that has nothing to do with these points: that is to say you avoid to answer because you have no argument, that's why you feel so nervous : take it easy and keep cool I'm not as afraid as you to look at RISK of REAL world ; it seems that you don't want to make any risk assessment about that, perhaps you don't do it either for your trade or yes you do it because it's more easy for you psychologically to assess a risk for a few thousand dollars than assess it for your whole life and the whole society but that doesn't change the risk potential itself even if you pray God I don't think what humanity has done to the Earth and above all other men like the third World can be forgiven at term with or without God - since I'm not God believer. If you believe in law of Action and Reaction, then one day it will have a Reaction. I don't want Revolution because I have escape with my family from a communist one : my family was very rich (my grandfather was controlling a diamond mine he was the most powerful aristocrat of his province), such revolution touches the rich not the poors and it is when the riches are touched that a country sunk into chaos. If you want to avoid a revolution, communist, fascist whatever you should take conscious of what is around furher than from your circle family. You say that Europe is worst than America: I didn't say the contrary I had even say that it is the result of more socialism in Europe than in US, and tomorrow you can become as socialist as Europe or worst facist with all the laws that violate individual freedom I won't be surprised if they are used one day by these group of men.
Fascinating to read a confirmed conspiracy theorist..as with most he can't get his facts right so what hope has he with anything else? "This crisis has been the setup for revolutionarists like Hitler because it is the misery of the poors that they take as argument to make such revolution. Germany was the military superpower of that time, before Germany a few hundred years before it was Great Britain, before Great Britain it was France, ... and now it " I think Britain was a miltary superpower from about 1750 to approx 1920 ish and France was one from around 1600 to 1915. (and Germany was a naval superpower for about 20 years from 1896 to 1916).
And it seems that as for trading you lack a bit of experience at least more than me http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=25294&perpage=6&pagenumber=6 11-21-03 08:33 AM http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=374765&highlight=phone#post374765 You inexperienced guys : that's exactly how your trading account can be washed out one day when the market will be really in panic mode - this didn't happen yet. Must have several brokers and at least one that you are absolutly sure that you can get a guy by phone in seconds you need it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from pspr: Once again, IB is having problems when the market starts moving. I've been logged off twice already this morning and currently it still won't log back on. I'm getting tired of this. It is costing me money! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.historyguide.org/europe/lecture9.html "Fascism was a mass anti-liberal, anti-communist movement. It was radical in its acceptance of conflict. It was radical in its willingness to employ force whenever necessary. It held all upper class values in contempt. And, it attacked its enemies on both the left and the right. With a leader such as ADOLF HITLER (1889-1945), SUPPORT tended to COME FROM the lower middle class. The LITTLE MEN -- the clerks, the shopkeepers, the minor civil servants. These were the people whose ambitions had been frustrated by the wartime economy. These were the people who were self-taught but could not get ahead. Finally, these were the people who came out of the Great War demoralized by German defeat in 1918. " "Fascism or Fascist ideology were not restricted to Italy or to Germany alone. Fascism was a European phenomenon which developed as a reaction to the perceived failure of western-style liberal democracies and industrial capitalism." "It's been said that people, not being truly rational, have need of ritual, romance and religion. Perhaps these needs had been neglected in a rationalized, bureaucratic and mechanical society. Fascism reminded these people that twentieth century man is in search of religion and religious faith -- faith needed to replace a Christianity now hidden. In Fascism and Nazism, they found a new faith replete with rituals, symbols, sacraments, the good book as well as a Messiah. In the end, of course, this new faith turned out to be a disastrous one. " So if you are ignorant of history and believe that economic crisis and lost of morality - at the end of an era of prosperity - are not the ideal setup for revolution and war you're maybe just a spinal chord expression I borrow to Einstein
Hi Guys Interesting thread. Entertaining as well. Wont go into elaborate discursions or take sides, just thought I'd post what popped into my mind after reading all the posts. Soros (who is not a communist nor a wannabee when it comes to trading) did make his historic gains in currency speculating through thinking outside the box, and questioning the words of central banks. (E.g. B.O.E. saying they wouldn't allow the Sterling to fall below a certain level)