PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY AND TRY TO DIGEST WHAT IT MEANS- SOMETHING I HAVE BEEN HAMMERING INTO THICK SKULLS LATELY... Here is a nice commentary from S&P Markescope ON 1/24/2008 "On the economic data front, initial jobless claims fell 1,000 to 301,000 for the week ended Jan. 19, considerably lower than the 325,000 level that economists had anticipated. Declines over the previous three weeks have taken initial claims from the year's high of 357,000 down to near 2007 lows. The drop in claims in January diminishes the significance of the December claims surge, as the mix now looks more like the usual seasonal volatility than a sign of marked deterioration in December, Action Economics said. The drop in unemployment claims reported Thursday is significant because the biggest risk to the U.S. economy currently is a psychological one rather than one of a marked decline in demand for goods and services, said David Kelly, chief market strategist at JP Morgan Funds in New York. "The problem is so many people have bought into the notion that because of the financial crisis we must have a recession," Kelly said. "This is case where we could talk ourselves into a recession, led psychologically rather than fundamentally." Since U.S. businesses aren't overstaffed, it isn't necessary to lay off workers as long as there's still plenty of demand in the economy from recent quarters, Kelly said. What the market is testing now is, in the absence of a big drop in demand, how many workers are businesses likely to lay off anyway just because theyâ re scared, he said. "Any recession in America has to be led by the consumer," Kelly said, adding that only a loss of jobs, not a decline in wealth or in confidence, has spurred consumers to stop spending in the past 16 years."
Seems to me all the talk of a recession has disappeared, the sad thing is that these talking heads have no clue what to expect, were in a recession at this very moment, do not think for a second that 2 up days on the dow cancels out any chance of a future recession, because I can actually say that were in a recession at this very moment. Amazing how the thought process changes in only 48 hrs, I have heard over and over that a bottom is most likely in place and that its off to 14k all over again, I wouldn't believe the hype.
The talk of recession was a manipulative game by our Institutional traders/ friends like GOLDMAN SACHS ( rememba them? )to shoot the stock indexes to pitiful bottoms while standing on the short side raking millions. When things got utterly difficult these cockroaches let it go, they didn't want to kill the Golden Goose entirely and here we are still making it through. There won't be an recession at all ..its just the fear of it that was enough to scare you to death.
Keep repeating a bad dream...things have changed since 2000-2003 the world has changed and we have a global economy that can't be brought down by US alone.. Any recession in the US has to be started by the consumer. That ain't happening now. Jobs are plenty, read todays jobless claims report I quoted in this thread.
LOL, WHAT RECESSION? Every thing is fine. Im only worth 30% less than I was in 2000 thanks to the devaluation of the Dollar. I also lost an additional 12% or so thanks to the "What Inflation" oil, gas and food. So come on, Im now worth 42% LESS in 08 years. Oh yea, that house I bought 3 years ago, I paid to much and my Refinancing rate is higher than the current Home rates. My wife, and I carry 15k of "charged crap" on our cards if not more, and we are starting to fall behind I am still driving my car, which I took out a 7 year loan with zero down and zero interest for 5 years. I work in some sort of "Service sector" (which is 99% of the US work force) and I could be laid off in the next 6 months Oh yea, I have a negative savings rate My name is John "Im so fucked beyond belief that I hope the FEDS cut to zero to save my dumb ass" American Citizen WHAT RECESSION:eek:
Sense of entitlement. Ask not what your country can do for you Askwhat you can do for your country. JOHN F. KENNEDY
We are definitely in recession. No one ever admits it until 3 to 6 months after it starts. EVER. And yes, we have inflation, unless you don't eat or drive a car. These are volatile, but when they consistently run at 10%, as food is doing, you have to include it. You guys go grocery shopping lately? Everything from cereal to the milk to put in it is WAY up. Don't like cereal? OK, the bread you toast is way up too. I just paid 6 bucks for an 18 pack of eggs! They used to almost be free. Breakfast is just bloody expensive now. Can you say stagflation? As for the rally, it won't last. I'd bet my first born that we test and surpass the lows within the next month or two, if not sooner. THEN we may set longer term lows as the markets are always way ahead of the curve and actually rally during a recession most of the time. Jay
Did a fall in consumer spending cause the 1929 crash? Or was the fall in spending a consequence of the crash? A recession is still a very likely thing to happen in the US, and it will be as long as the issues behind it are not addressed. What issues? Falling prices in the real state market. High rate of defaults and delinquencies on loans. Depreciating currency. Also, the Triple deficits, and a certain war that's going nowhere, are not helping the case. Cutting rates is a placebo, whenever rates are cut the market goes up a few days. Only to resume selling until the next rate cut. The problem is that you can only cut rates down to 0. After that, you need to actually address the issues.
Governments NEVER admit there is a recession. It just becomes a routine of outright lies to the people.